Survey on the election in bamberg: strong unopposed, grunes beat csu

Survey on the election in bamberg: strong unopposed, grunes beat csu

In the bamberg election on 15. Marz, there are signs of a neck-and-neck race – probably not for the chair in city hall, since incumbent andreas starke (SPD) seems to be sitting pretty securely in the saddle, but for the leadership role in the city council: a representative survey of 282 voters commissioned by the FT from the pragma institute sees the grunen (around 25 percent) just ahead of the strongest party in the city council so far, the CSU (just under 23 percent). The SPD is likely to slip back as well: according to the poll, it now only has 18 percent (2014: 21.5 percent). That would be 3rd place. "The greens are strong in all age cohorts, go through the roof among young voters", explains martin messingschlager of the pragma institute.

How burgerblock, bambergs unabhangige burger, bamberger allianz and freie wahler are performing

Due to the rough number of 14 lists, the doctor of social science expects a patchwork quilt in the new city council: "it will be the most colorful city council we have ever had." In addition to the CSU, SPD and grune, the bamberger allianz (BA), the burgerblock (BBB), bambergs unabhangige burger (BUB), the FDP, the bamberger linke, the freie wahler (), the afd, bambergs mitte, volt, the odp and the party will be running.

According to the survey, tscherners burgerblock is ahead of BUB, BA and (5 percent each) with 6 percent, and the other groups account for the remaining 13 percent. Messingschlager says that it is not possible to predict with any certainty who of the remaining parties will ultimately be elected to the city council and how many seats they will have. However, the afd will probably be represented by at least one seat, as will the left-wing party.

35 percent undecided

Voter turnout is likely to be higher than in previous elections (city council election 2014: a good 44 percent). The 35 percent of voters surveyed who have not yet made up their minds are the great unknown: "it is very difficult to assess the undecideds and whether they will go to the polls", messingschlager explains. They could only decide to go to the polls in the heiben election campaign phase.

Strong needs a run-off vote?

Messingschlager says this will also have an impact on the runoff question in the mayoral election. Whereas the OB question could be decided unambiguously: the majority of the 282 respondents voted with 48 percent for incumbent strong. According to messingschlager, there are two big questions: "will oberburgermeister starke make it without a runoff election, and if not: who will make it into the runoff election??" Challenger christian lange (CSU) and jonas glusenkamp (grune) are battling it out, both following equally with a clear gap to strong (around 17 percent each). Among the remaining candidates (together 18 percent), ursula redler (BA) stands out in the survey, coming in fourth place.

But it does not seem to have a say in the decision either. If one goes by the survey results, there is a lot to suggest that OB starke will be in office for a third time.

Survey on the 2020 election

The pragma institute, founded in 2008 at the university of bamberg, conducted a survey on behalf of the french day in the period from 30 to 30 june 2008. January to 17. In cooperation with the university of bamberg, a total of 282 voters in the city of bamberg were asked on february 15 who they would vote for in the election for mayor and city council on february 15. March elections were. The representative survey was conducted online and by telephone (mix-mode survey). Since the survey was conducted before the election campaign was even underway, i.E. Before the posters were put up, and since there was still a large proportion of undecideds (35 percent) among those surveyed, deviations in the actual election results are possible.

Commentary by sebastian martin: strong seems to remain popular

Although it is only a forecast for the election of mayor, the clear result makes one sit up and take notice: mayor stark seems to continue to enjoy great popularity among the people of bamberger. 48 percent of the vote was a clear vote of confidence in view of the large number of competitors. Whether he can pull the SPD along as a top candidate, on the other hand, is questionable. In the future, starke will probably face the challenge of having to ensure majorities in a fragmented city council.

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